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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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