Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
