Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
